Evidence-first deskSetups published
Rolling twelve months, all plans
The record
The numbers, with the caveats attached
Published results are only useful next to their limits. This page gives both, in that order, because the second half is the part that changes how you should read the first.
Reached target
Hit rate on triggered setups
Average outcome
Expectancy per triggered setup
Worst drawdown
Peak to trough on the paper account
Start 0.0REnd +16.2RDeepest −7.9R
The curve is the same computation the journal runs inside the portal, drawn here from the published record. It goes down as well as up — the deepest peak-to-trough leg is the −7.9R printed above, and it is shown because a curve without its drawdown is a sales chart, not a record.
Sample
Eight consecutive setups, unedited
Consecutive means consecutive: this is a window from the queue with nothing removed, not a selection of the ones that worked.
- 12 JulBTCUSDTlongclosed+2.4RTarget 2 filled
- 12 JulNVDAlongclosed+1.1RTrailed out
- 14 JulSOLUSDTshortinvalidated-1.0RStop taken
- 15 JulETHUSDTlongactive—In trade, stop at break-even
- 15 JulTSLAshortexpired—Never triggered, window closed
- 16 JulLINKUSDTlongclosed+3.2RFull target
- 17 JulAMDlonginvalidated-1.0RThesis broke pre-entry
- 18 JulAVAXUSDTlongforming—Awaiting confirmation
Three made money, two were stopped out, one never triggered, one is in trade, one is still forming. None of them were removed from the list after the fact.
Methodology
How each figure is computed
- R multiple
- Outcome divided by the risk defined on the ticket at publication. A stop taken at the published invalidation is exactly −1R.
- Hit rate
- Setups that reached at least the first target, divided by setups that triggered. Expired setups are excluded from the denominator and reported separately.
- Expectancy
- Mean R across all triggered setups, winners and losers together, with no survivorship filter applied.
- Drawdown
- Largest peak-to-trough decline of the cumulative R curve, measured on closed setups only.
Limits
What this record cannot tell you
It is a paper account
Fills are modelled at the published entry zone with realistic slippage assumptions. Real execution on a real account will differ, sometimes badly.
Twelve months is a small sample
412 setups is enough to see a tendency and nowhere near enough to prove an edge. Every figure on this page is shown with its sample size for that reason.
One market regime
The record covers the conditions that happened to occur, not the ones that did not. A method that survived this year has not been tested against every year.
Your results will not match
Position size, entry discipline, and which setups you choose to take dominate the outcome. The record measures the research, not your trading.
Read the journal yourself
The portal shows the same numbers computed live, with every underlying setup linked.